── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Zverev 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Daniil Medvedev
59%41%
Hard: 54% / 46%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 47% / 53%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
RUS
198cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard8–11
Grass0–1
Clay0–2
── 22 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Alexander Zverev | 2-6 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-06-16 | Halle | Grass | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-7(1) 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 5-7 3-6 7-6(4) 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(7) 6-4 |
| 2023-09-27 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-6(3) |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 7-5 7-6(7) |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2021-11-15 | Tour Finals | Hard | F | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-11-15 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-7(3) 7-6(6) |
| 2021-11-01 | Paris Masters | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-02-02 | Atp Cup | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2020-11-16 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2020-11-02 | Paris Masters | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 5-7 6-4 6-1 |
| 2019-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2019-10-07 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2018-08-06 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2018-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 1-6 7-6(5) |
| 2017-07-31 | Washington | Hard | QF | Alexander Zverev | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2016-09-19 | St. Petersburg | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-3 7-5 |