── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Jannik Sinner
20%80%
Hard: 18% / 82%
Clay: 38% / 62%
Grass: 20% / 80%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#1
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
ITA
198cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Jannik Sinner
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–3
Hard3–7
── 14 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4) |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Alexander Zverev | 5-7 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2020-10-19 | Cologne 2 | Hard | SF | Alexander Zverev | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3 |