── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Zverev 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Lorenzo Musetti
72%28%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 58% / 42%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#12
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
ITA
198cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay1–2
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6(1) 6-4 |
| 2024-10-21 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Lorenzo Musetti | 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | QF | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-3 1-0 RET |