── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz
31%69%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
ESP
198cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–4
Clay1–3
── 13 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-7(4) 7-5 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Alexander Zverev | 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Alexander Zverev | 6-1 6-3 6-7(2) 6-4 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Alexander Zverev | 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 6-4 4-6 7-6(7) |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2021-10-25 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Alexander Zverev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-03-15 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Alexander Zverev | 6-3 6-1 |