── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Zverev 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Matteo Arnaldi
87%13%
Hard: 91% / 9%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
ITA
198cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexander Zverev | 6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-02-24 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Alexander Zverev | 6-7(2) 6-3 6-4 |