── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Zverev 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexander Zverev
Joao Fonseca
69%31%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexander Zverev
99th · elite
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Alexander Zverev
93th · elite
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
GER
country
BRA
198cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexander Zverev■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Alexander Zverev | 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3 |