── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Martin Damm a slight 50% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Martin Damm
Alexei Popyrin
50%50%
Hard: 49% / 51%
Clay: 19% / 81%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Martin Damm
80th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Martin Damm
5th · poor
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#87
model rank
#90
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
203cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Martin Damm■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R128 | Martin Damm | 7-6(7) 6-4 |