── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Richard Gasquet
Matteo Arnaldi
31%69%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 22% / 78%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Richard Gasquet
36th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Richard Gasquet
37th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#132
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Richard Gasquet■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Richard Gasquet | 6-3 4-6 6-4 |