── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 90% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Novak Djokovic
Marin Cilic
90%10%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 82% / 18%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Marin Cilic
81th · strong
Return
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Marin Cilic
47th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#3
model rank
#70
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
CRO
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Novak Djokovic■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard16–1
Clay3–0
Grass2–1
── 23 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Novak Djokovic | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2022-09-26 | Tel Aviv | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-12-03 | Davis Cup Finals SF: CRO vs SRB | Hard | RR | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-05-06 | Madrid Masters | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | W/O |
| 2018-11-12 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Novak Djokovic | 7-6(7) 6-2 |
| 2018-10-29 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2018-08-13 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |
| 2018-06-18 | Queen's Club | Grass | F | Marin Cilic | 5-7 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2016-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Marin Cilic | 6-4 7-6(2) |
| 2015-08-31 | US Open | Hard | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-0 6-1 6-2 |
| 2015-06-29 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
| 2015-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2014-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Novak Djokovic | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2014-06-23 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-1 3-6 6-7(4) 6-2 6-2 |
| 2014-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-2 6-7(2) 6-4 |
| 2014-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 1-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2012-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2011-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2010-07-09 | Davis Cup WG QF: CRO vs SRB | Hard | RR | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-3 6-2 |
| 2009-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 6-2 7-6(4) |
| 2009-02-23 | Dubai | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2008-08-25 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 6-7(7) 7-5 6-4 7-6(0) |
| 2008-03-03 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-3 |