── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Novak Djokovic
Alex De Minaur
71%29%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 72% / 28%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Novak Djokovic
97th · elite
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#4
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
AUS
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Novak Djokovic■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Grass2–0
Clay1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 7-6(3) 0-1 RET |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Novak Djokovic | W/O |
| 2024-04-08 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-01-01 | United Cup | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 6-2 6-1 6-2 |