── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Novak Djokovic
Lorenzo Musetti
77%23%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 92% / 8%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#3
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Novak Djokovic■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–0
Clay4–1
Grass1–0
── 11 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 4-6 3-6 3-1 RET |
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 4-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 7-5 6-7(6) 2-6 6-3 6-0 |
| 2024-04-08 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 4-6 7-5 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2022-02-21 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 6-7(7) 6-7(2) 6-1 6-0 4-0 RET |