── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz
37%63%
Hard: 41% / 59%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 57% / 43%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#3
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Novak Djokovic■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Clay2–1
Grass0–2
── 10 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Novak Djokovic | 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | F | Novak Djokovic | 7-6(3) 7-6(2) |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-2 7-6(4) |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4) |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5) |