── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Novak Djokovic
Matteo Arnaldi
88%12%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 99% / 1%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#3
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Novak Djokovic■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-4 |