── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Roberto Bautista Agut
Holger Rune
49%51%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Roberto Bautista Agut
36th · below avg
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Roberto Bautista Agut
66th · average
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#130
model rank
#127
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
DEN
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Roberto Bautista Agut■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Clay0–1
Hard0–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Roberto Bautista Agut | 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-2 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R128 | Holger Rune | 6-7(4) 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Holger Rune | 6-2 3-6 6-2 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | SF | Holger Rune | 7-6(1) 7-6(6) |