── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Roberto Bautista Agut
Matteo Arnaldi
39%61%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 23% / 77%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Roberto Bautista Agut
36th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Roberto Bautista Agut
66th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#130
model rank
#84
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Roberto Bautista Agut■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 6-4 6-3 |