── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Alexander Bublik 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Adrian Mannarino
Alexander Bublik
20%80%
Hard: 28% / 72%
Clay: 7% / 93%
Grass: 36% / 64%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Adrian Mannarino
22th · below avg
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Adrian Mannarino
56th · average
Alexander Bublik
51th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#130
model rank
#24
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
FRA
country
KAZ
180cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Adrian MannarinoAlexander Bublik
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard11
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-09-25BeijingHardR32Adrian Mannarino6-3 6-2
2020-01-06DohaHardR32Alexander Bublik6-3 6-4