── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 79% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Adrian Mannarino
Tommy Paul
21%79%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 4% / 96%
Grass: 34% / 66%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Adrian Mannarino
26th · below avg
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Adrian Mannarino
59th · average
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#107
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
FRA
country
USA
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Adrian Mannarino■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Grass0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 2-6 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Adrian Mannarino | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Adrian Mannarino | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-4 6-1 |