── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Adrian Mannarino
Denis Shapovalov
34%66%
Hard: 27% / 73%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 74% / 26%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Adrian Mannarino
26th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Return
Adrian Mannarino
59th · average
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#106
model rank
#49
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Left
FRA
country
CAN
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Adrian Mannarino■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7(6) 6-3 6-2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R128 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2017-10-23 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Adrian Mannarino | 4-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2017-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 2-6 6-3 6-4 |