── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 83% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Adrian Mannarino
Alex De Minaur
17%83%
Hard: 19% / 81%
Clay: 4% / 96%
Grass: 30% / 70%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Adrian Mannarino
26th · below avg
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Adrian Mannarino
59th · average
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#107
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
FRA
country
AUS
180cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Adrian Mannarino■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–3
Hard0–3
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2026-06-13 | 's-Hertogenbosch | Grass | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-07-25 | Atlanta | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 4-6 6-3 6-0 |
| 2022-06-06 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Adrian Mannarino | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2019-09-23 | Zhuhai | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 6-4 |