── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Marin Cilic
Denis Shapovalov
39%61%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Marin Cilic
77th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Return
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#83
model rank
#49
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
CRO
country
CAN
198cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Marin Cilic■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass2–0
Hard2–3
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 's-Hertogenbosch | Grass | R32 | Marin Cilic | 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-07 | Stuttgart | Grass | QF | Marin Cilic | 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2020-02-17 | Marseille | Hard | R16 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 4-6 6-2 |
| 2019-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-10-22 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-2 |