── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Marin Cilic a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Marin Cilic
Alexei Popyrin
52%48%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Marin Cilic
76th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#81
model rank
#90
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CRO
country
AUS
198cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Marin Cilic■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Marin Cilic | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Marin Cilic | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2021-02-22 | Singapore | Hard | SF | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(5) 7-6(2) |