── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Kei Nishikori 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Mackenzie Mcdonald
59%41%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Mackenzie Mcdonald
22th · below avg
Return
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Mackenzie Mcdonald
42th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#159
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
JPN
country
USA
178cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Mackenzie Mcdonald
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-10 | Delray Beach | Hard | R32 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(3) 6-3 6-7(5) 2-6 6-3 |
| 2021-08-02 | Washington | Hard | SF | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |
| 2018-01-29 | Dallas CH | Hard | F | Kei Nishikori | 6-1 6-4 |