── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Frances Tiafoe
16%84%
Hard: 19% / 81%
Clay: 34% / 66%
Grass: 47% / 53%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Return
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#12
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
JPN
country
USA
178cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-10-22 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(3) 5-7 6-2 |