── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Denis Shapovalov
37%63%
Hard: 29% / 71%
Clay: 54% / 46%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
31th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Kei Nishikori
77th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#119
model rank
#66
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
JPN
country
CAN
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard2–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Hong Kong | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(1) 6-3 |
| 2018-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7(3) 6-3 6-1 |