── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Denis Shapovalov
30%70%
Hard: 24% / 76%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Return
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
JPN
country
CAN
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard2–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Hong Kong | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(1) 6-3 |
| 2018-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7(3) 6-3 6-1 |