── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Kei Nishikori 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Luca Nardi
56%44%
Hard: 55% / 45%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
31th · below avg
Luca Nardi
16th · poor
Return
Kei Nishikori
77th · strong
Luca Nardi
45th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#119
model rank
#144
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
JPN
country
ITA
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Phoenix CH | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-11-04 | Helsinki CH | Hard | F | Kei Nishikori | 3-6 6-4 6-1 |