── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Kei Nishikori 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Kei Nishikori
Luca Nardi
63%37%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 93% / 7%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Luca Nardi
9th · poor
Return
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Luca Nardi
33th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#126
model rank
#175
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
JPN
country
ITA
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Kei Nishikori■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Phoenix CH | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-11-04 | Helsinki CH | Hard | F | Kei Nishikori | 3-6 6-4 6-1 |