── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniel Evans
Tommy Paul
9%91%
Hard: 11% / 89%
Clay: 9% / 91%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniel Evans
6th · poor
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Daniel Evans
30th · below avg
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#171
model rank
#14
Grass
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GBR
country
USA
175cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniel Evans■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard2–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-23 | Eastbourne | Grass | R16 | Daniel Evans | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |
| 2022-09-14 | Davis Cup Finals RR: USA vs GBR | Hard | RR | Tommy Paul | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Daniel Evans | 1-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2018-08-13 | Vancouver CH | Hard | Q3 | Daniel Evans | 6-0 6-7(10) 7-5 |