── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Dusan Lajovic
Matteo Arnaldi
40%60%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 25% / 75%
Grass: 57% / 43%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Dusan Lajovic
39th · below avg
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Dusan Lajovic
45th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#125
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
SRB
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Dusan Lajovic■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | Q1 | Dusan Lajovic | 6-0 3-6 6-4 |