── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
David Goffin
Carlos Alcaraz
3%97%
Hard: 4% / 96%
Clay: 4% / 96%
Grass: 8% / 92%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
David Goffin
13th · poor
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
David Goffin
78th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#141
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BEL
country
ESP
180cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ David Goffin■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | David Goffin | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-10-03 | Astana | Hard | R32 | David Goffin | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2021-02-01 | Great Ocean Road Open | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 |