── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Grigor Dimitrov
Daniil Medvedev
26%74%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Grigor Dimitrov
87th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Grigor Dimitrov
80th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#41
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BUL
country
RUS
191cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Grigor Dimitrov■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–8
Grass1–1
── 12 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | W/O |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 5-3 RET |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(2) |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2022-10-24 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-10-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Grigor Dimitrov | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2017-07-31 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2017-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-3 3-6 6-3 |