── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Grigor Dimitrov
Alex De Minaur
29%71%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 29% / 71%
Grass: 42% / 58%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Grigor Dimitrov
86th · strong
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Grigor Dimitrov
71th · strong
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#52
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BUL
country
AUS
191cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Grigor Dimitrov■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–2
Hard2–3
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-0 6-0 |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023-04-17 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Alex De Minaur | W/O |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | QF | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-3 3-6 7-6(6) |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 7-5 |
| 2020-10-19 | Antwerp | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 6-7(3) 6-4 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | Hard | R16 | Grigor Dimitrov | 7-5 6-3 6-4 |