── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Grigor Dimitrov
Carlos Alcaraz
8%92%
Hard: 12% / 88%
Clay: 8% / 92%
Grass: 15% / 85%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Grigor Dimitrov
87th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Grigor Dimitrov
80th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#41
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BUL
country
ESP
191cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Grigor Dimitrov■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–3
Grass0–1
Clay0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Grigor Dimitrov | 5-7 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-3 |