── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
James Duckworth
Matteo Arnaldi
44%56%
Hard: 52% / 48%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
James Duckworth
60th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
James Duckworth
11th · poor
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#108
model rank
#86
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ James Duckworth■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R128 | James Duckworth | 5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6(8) |