── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Damir Dzumhur
Matteo Arnaldi
35%65%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 22% / 78%
Grass: 65% / 35%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Damir Dzumhur
6th · poor
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Damir Dzumhur
73th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#149
model rank
#84
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BIH
country
ITA
175cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Damir Dzumhur■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | Clay | QF | Damir Dzumhur | 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-6(4) |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-4 |