── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Mackenzie Mcdonald a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex Bolt
Mackenzie Mcdonald
47%53%
Hard: 31% / 69%
Clay: 34% / 66%
Grass: 61% / 39%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Mackenzie Mcdonald
30th · below avg
Return
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Mackenzie Mcdonald
42th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#145
model rank
#132
Grass
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
183cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex Bolt■ Mackenzie Mcdonald
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Grass3–2
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Jingshan CH | Hard | SF | Alex Bolt | 6-3 3-6 6-3 |
| 2025-06-02 | Birmingham CH | Grass | R32 | Alex Bolt | 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | Q1 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-06-03 | Surbiton CH | Grass | R32 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 7-6(3) 6-0 |
| 2021-06-14 | Nottingham 2 CH | Grass | SF | Alex Bolt | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-02-01 | Murray River Open | Hard | R32 | Alex Bolt | 6-4 6-7(7) 7-5 |
| 2018-06-11 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2017-06-12 | Nottingham CH | Grass | Q2 | Alex Bolt | 7-5 6-7(3) 6-2 |