── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Bolt 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex Bolt
Yosuke Watanuki
59%41%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Yosuke Watanuki
14th · poor
Return
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Yosuke Watanuki
31th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#145
model rank
#164
Grass
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
AUS
country
JPN
183cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex Bolt■ Yosuke Watanuki
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Busan CH | Hard | R32 | Alex Bolt | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2024-11-04 | Matsuyama CH | Hard | SF | Alex Bolt | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-09-04 | Shanghai CH | Hard | R32 | Yosuke Watanuki | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2019-02-18 | Delray Beach | Hard | Q1 | Yosuke Watanuki | 6-1 6-1 |