── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Stan Wawrinka
86%14%
Hard: 83% / 17%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 69% / 31%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Stan Wawrinka
69th · average
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Stan Wawrinka
16th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#129
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
SUI
198cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Stan Wawrinka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-02-03 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(8) 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-09-19 | Metz | Hard | R16 | Stan Wawrinka | 6-4 6-7(7) 6-3 |
| 2020-01-20 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Stan Wawrinka | 6-2 2-6 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(6) 6-3 3-6 6-1 |
| 2017-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 3-6 6-4 6-1 |