Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev
5–11
head to head
Novak DjokovicNovak Djokovic
── the model's take · model grid · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Novak Djokovic 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Daniil Medvedev
Novak Djokovic
33%67%
Hard: 35% / 65%
Clay: 26% / 74%
Grass: 12% / 88%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Novak Djokovic
97th · elite

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#8
model rank
#4
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
SRB
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

■ Daniil Medvedev■ Novak Djokovic
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard4–10
Clay1–0
Grass0–1
── 16 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-10-05BeijingHardSFNovak Djokovic7-5 5-3 DEF
2023-08-28Us OpenHardFNovak Djokovic6-3 7-6(5) 6-3
2023-02-27DubaiHardSFDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4
2023-01-02Adelaide 1HardSFNovak Djokovic6-3 6-4
2022-11-14Tour FinalsHardRRNovak Djokovic6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(2)
2022-10-03AstanaHardSFNovak Djokovic4-6 7-6(6) 0-0 RET
2021-11-01Paris MastersHardFNovak Djokovic4-6 6-3 6-3
2021-08-30Us OpenHardFDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4 6-4
2021-02-08Australian OpenHardFNovak Djokovic7-5 6-2 6-2
2020-11-16Tour FinalsHardRRDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-3
2020-01-06Atp CupHardSFNovak Djokovic6-1 5-7 6-4
2019-08-12Cincinnati MastersHardSFDaniil Medvedev3-6 6-3 6-3
2019-04-15Monte Carlo MastersClayQFDaniil Medvedev6-3 4-6 6-2
2019-01-14Australian OpenHardR16Novak Djokovic6-4 6-7(5) 6-2 6-3
2017-06-26EastbourneGrassSFNovak Djokovic6-4 6-4
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: RUS vs SRBHardRRNovak Djokovic3-6 6-4 6-1 1-0 RET