── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Marin Cilic
80%20%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 47% / 53%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Marin Cilic
77th · strong
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#83
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
CRO
198cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass3–0
Clay0–1
Hard2–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-1 6-2 6-4 |
| 2026-06-13 | 's-Hertogenbosch | Grass | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 3-6 6-1 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Marin Cilic | 6-2 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-12-05 | Davis Cup Finals F: RTF vs CRO | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(7) 6-2 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | Grass | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(3) 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-2 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 7-6(7) |