── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Reilly Opelka
82%18%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 82% / 18%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Reilly Opelka
97th · elite
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#100
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
USA
198cm
height
211cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Reilly Opelka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
Grass0–1
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 7-5 6-1 |
| 2025-06-09 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | QF | Reilly Opelka | 7-6(5) 7-6(5) |
| 2021-08-09 | Canada Masters | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 6-4 |
| 2020-10-12 | St Petersburg | Hard | R16 | Reilly Opelka | 2-6 7-5 6-4 |
| 2019-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(0) |
| 2017-07-31 | Washington | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(8) 6-3 7-6(6) |