── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Frances Tiafoe
70%30%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 72% / 28%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
USA
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard6–1
Clay0–1
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-4 [10-5] |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2020-08-31 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 6-0 |
| 2020-01-20 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2015-05-17 | Nice | Clay | Q2 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-2 |