── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Matteo Berrettini
73%27%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 37% / 63%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#38
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ITA
198cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard3–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-0 6-0 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 |
| 2021-02-02 | Atp Cup | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(6) 7-5 6-4 |