── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Lorenzo Sonego
84%16%
Hard: 83% / 17%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 68% / 32%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
69th · average
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Lorenzo Sonego
40th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#87
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ITA
198cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-02-26 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-01-02 | Adelaide 1 | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(6) 2-1 RET |