── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Felix Auger Aliassime
58%42%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 64% / 36%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#9
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
CAN
198cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Felix Auger Aliassime
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard8–1
Clay0–1
── 10 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 0-0 RET |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023-02-20 | Doha | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(4) 3-6 7-6(2) 7-5 6-4 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 7-5 6-2 |
| 2018-08-06 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-4 7-6(7) |