── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
71%29%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 76% / 24%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#33
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
198cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 1-6 6-2 |
| 2024-02-26 | Dubai | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |