── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Alexei Popyrin
82%18%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 68% / 32%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#75
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
AUS
198cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
Clay1–0
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 5-7 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 2-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-4 |
| 2020-01-20 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2019-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4 6-4 |