── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Sebastian Baez
81%19%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 69% / 31%
Grass: 92% / 8%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#89
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ARG
198cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-2 7-6(6) |