── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Brandon Nakashima
74%26%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 73% / 27%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#42
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
USA
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Brandon Nakashima
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-6(1) |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |