── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 83% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Jesper De Jong
83%17%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 62% / 38%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Jesper De Jong
32th · below avg
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Jesper De Jong
44th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#84
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
NED
198cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Jesper De Jong
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 6-2 7-6(2) |