── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 76% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz
24%76%
Hard: 28% / 72%
Clay: 15% / 85%
Grass: 15% / 85%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
198cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–4
Grass1–2
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 6-2 |