── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Daniil Medvedev 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Daniil Medvedev
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
85%15%
Hard: 95% / 5%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 92% / 8%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
36th · below avg
Return
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
61th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#5
model rank
#97
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Daniil MedvedevPablo Llamas Ruiz
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-05-06Rome MastersClayR32Daniil Medvedev3-6 6-4 6-2